Thanks to Matthew Goodwin’s (e-mail: firstname.lastname@example.org ) latest round-up of research into Britain’s EU Referendum, here’s a guest post from Matthew Shaddick, head of Political Betting at Ladbrokes:
“The polls may be close but the latest odds in the betting market point strongly toward a Remain win. Ladbrokes have a current price of 1/3 Remain and 9/4 Leave, implying a 71% probability that Britain will vote to remain in the European Union.
The conclusion of the Prime Minister’s renegotiation in Brussels sparked a frenzy of betting on the outcome (even if there has been no post-renegotiation bounce in the polls).
Initially, there was a huge shift towards Remain but this was followed by a shift back to Leave following the news that Boris Johnson had decided to campaign for Leave.
Yet as far as the betting markets are concerned – and as shown below -it does look like Cameron’s renegotiation has shifted the betting markets in favour of a Remain vote.”
If you are a British Citizen still qualified to vote (after less than 15 years abroad), make sure that you can make your voice heard in the EU Referendum by registering to vote on www.gov.uk/register-to-vote.